Bitcoin BTC -4.21% proponents say that the bitcoin halving’s impact on its supply could have a big impact, particularly at a time when there’s high demand from spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds.

“This halving will trigger an immense supply shock to the system. With current U.S. ETFs at 5-10x daily supply, post-halving demand would be 10-20x supply,” Samson Mow, CEO at bitcoin technology company JAN3, told The Block.

Mow added that the bitcoin ETFs launching in Hong Kong could also bring in further capital from Asian investors. He highlighted that these ETFs will have in-kind provisions, meaning investors can redeem their investments for the underlying bitcoin, something that’s not possible with U.S. bitcoin ETFs.

Since launching in January, the U.S. bitcoin ETFs have seen an overall increase of 212,000 BTC ($13.7 billion). However, some estimate that the Hong Kong ETFs will be "lucky" to even attract $500 million of total AUM.

Regardless, some supporters argue that the supply shock in and of itself could have an impact on bitcoin's price.

“The Bitcoin halving is priced in for the 0.1% of the world population that understands it,” said Dan Held, a general partner at bitcoin-focused VC firm Asymmetric, over Telegram. “The other 99.9% aren’t paying attention.”

'Nothing novel to happen'

However, not all bitcoin advocates see the halving as having such a major impact.

“Satoshi arbitrarily decided the emission schedule for Bitcoin and made it reduce in half every period. This affects miners that do not plan properly sometimes,” John Carvalho, CEO of Bitcoin development company Synonym, told The Block.

“Some people believe this induces an increase in price, but overall supply is minimally affected. So far, bull markets in price tend to have a correlating schedule. I expect nothing novel to happen this time,” he added.

The bitcoin halving is set to occur tonight, with the rewards per block decreasing from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC for the next four years. Make sure to watch the countdown here.