The put-call ratio of bitcoin options remains optimistic in anticipation of the quarterly expiry on the last Friday of this month, despite developments that might amplify downside risks for the top cryptocurrency, according to analysts.

Recent developments could intensify selling pressure on bitcoin. The Mt. Gox trustee has announced that repayments to creditors in bitcoin and bitcoin cash are set to start in July. Moreover, German authorities have confiscated 50,000 bitcoin, valued at over $2.1 billion, from a piracy operation, and U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs have experienced their seventh consecutive day of outflows.

Despite these pressures, analysts note that derivative market indicators continue to show sustained bullish sentiment for bitcoin as it approaches the weekly, monthly, and quarterly options expiry this Friday, June 28.

"Calls greatly outnumber puts, especially from $65,000 on upward. This is likely a by-product of the bullish sentiment we opened the month with, rather than the current situation we are considering - German authorities selling mass amounts of bitcoin, spot bitcoin ETFs seeing about $900 million in outflows last week, and a significant drop from recent highs," Cube.Exchange CEO Bartosz Lipinski told The Block.

Bitfinex analysts, speaking to The Block, also noted the bullish put-call skew, highlighting a put-to-call ratio of 0.53 for the upcoming quarterly expiration at the end of June.

"This ratio indicates a greater number of call options relative to put options, suggesting a bullish sentiment among traders," the analysts explained.

Implied volatility implies stable outlook post-Mt. Gox announcement

According to QCP Capital analysts, the options market is not anticipating increased volatility in July following Monday’s Mt. Gox creditor repayment announcement. “We see little activity in the July options market, suggesting the market is not anticipating volatility around the distribution itself,” they said.

Price action is likely to be capped in the near term but potentially bullish heading into year-end. QCP Capital noted, "Our desk has seen large selling of calls for expiries under 1-month and aggressive buying of calls for September into December." This aligns with the broader market sentiment, where traders appear to be positioning for a significant rally towards the end of the year, the analysts added.

This aligns with the observations of Bitfinex analysts, who informed The Block that current options market positions indicate traders speculating on a Q3 recovery and Q4 price appreciation. "There have notably been over $300 million on $100,00 strike price call options opened over the past week," Bitfinex analysts added. The analysts added that this activity could indicate that traders are either hedging current short positions or selling spot in the short term.

Bitcoin BTC -1.80% changed hands at around $61,046 at the time of writing, having traded flat in the past 24 hours, according to The Block’s price page. The price of ether has increased over 2.5% to $3,365 in the same period. The global cryptocurrency market cap today is $2.38 trillion, dropping 1.1% in the last 24 hours, according to Coingecko data.