Bernstein sees annual prediction market volumes hitting $10 trillion by 2035 as financial assets overtake sports

Annual prediction market trading volumes could reach $10 trillion by 2035, up from an estimated $410 billion in 2026, according to analysts at research and brokerage firm Bernstein. 

In a note to clients on Tuesday, the analysts led by Gautam Chhugani said they expect volumes to compound at about 70% annually between 2025 and 2035, after industry-wide activity rose from about $50 billion in 2025 to roughly $300 billion in 2026 through August.

Bernstein's forecast sees financial assets including crypto, equities, and commodities growing from roughly 12% of volumes in 2025 to 49% by 2035, overtaking sports as the largest category. Sports' share is expected to fall from 61% to 38% over the same period.

"We expect new products such as KPI markets, which allow users to trade a single corporate metric, such as production, deliveries, or subscriber growth, rather than the stock price itself," the analysts wrote. "Further, perp futures are expanding from crypto to commodities and single stock perps."

Crypto and commodities widen the market

According to Bernstein's analysts, the shift is already visible in 2026 trading. Short-duration contracts in crypto and commodities, including 15-minute bitcoin (BTC) markets, have contributed to the year's increase, while sports volumes surged around the FIFA World Cup and remained at record levels after the tournament ended.

Crypto's share of Kalshi's volume rose from less than 5% in January to about 20% in August, the analysts said. Commodity trading volume also grew from less than $2 million in 2025 to roughly $590 million in 2026 year-to-date, including $410 million in August alone. Kalshi held about 60% of industry volume through August, up from 35% in 2025.

On Polymarket, sports contracts accounted for about 52% of global volume in 2026 year-to-date, versus 39% in 2025, while politics represented 22%, down from 32%. Crypto accounted for about 21% of Polymarket's global volume during the period, according to Bernstein.

Bernstein estimates the addressable market for financial-asset contracts at roughly $700 trillion in 2025, rising to $900 trillion by 2035. Its model assumes prediction markets capture 0.5% of that pool by 2035, producing about $4.7 trillion in annual volume.

Regulation-wise, Bernstein said ultimate clarity for U.S. sports prediction markets is unlikely before 2027-28, citing conflicting court decisions over federal derivatives oversight and state gaming authority.