Bitcoin faces key hurdle in $81,000-$86,000 range to reach January high, analyst says

Bitcoin's (BTC) rebound toward its early-2026 highs now faces a supply range between $81,000 and $86,000 as a key hurdle, Glassnode said in its latest report.

Bitcoin’s latest rally, triggered by the U.S. Treasury’s buyback expansion announcement last week, was further boosted by a major short-liquidation event on Aug. 19, the largest since 2019, according to the report.

"The rally consumed the modelled liquidation clusters in its corridor, cutting the fuel in its path by 86%," the report said. 

The short squeeze deleveraged the market, shrinking futures open interest by 11% in coin terms. The perpetual funding rate stayed mostly neutral through the squeeze, indicating that new long positions did not fill the gap left by liquidated shorts, according to the report.

The rally also renewed investments into U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds, which took in more than $2.8 billion over eight consecutive days of net inflows. Glassnode said that coins left crypto exchanges as wallets of various sizes accumulated.

Breakeven

Still, Glassnode views $81,000-$86,000 as the main supply wall. That is where a large group of long-term holders sits near breakeven, so a push into that range tests whether those holders sell to get out flat.

It is also where the first heavy pocket of bitcoin that never left self-custody begins, near $80,800. Options dealers start hedging the other way around $82,300, the report said. Above that, their hedging can make it harder for prices to keep rising.

Last week's squeeze also left a "dense shelf" of short liquidation levels between $82,000 and $86,000, Glassnode said. 

The report said these are not separate stories. Older holders near breakeven, coins in self-custody, leftover squeeze levels, options hedging and visible sell orders all point to the same range of $81,000–$86,000, Glassnode explained.

"Every overhead structure we track now sits between $81K and $86K; that band is where the recovery's demand meets its test," the report said.

Settling above $83,300 with continued ETF inflows would indicate that the wall is being absorbed, the report added. A return to $62,900 would unwind the rally completely.