Prediction markets and derivatives drive Bernstein’s crypto stock outlook for Coinbase, Robinhood and Circle

Crypto trading is taking a back seat to prediction markets, derivatives and tokenization in Bernstein's latest revenue outlook for Coinbase, Robinhood and Circle.

In a Monday report, Bernstein kept an Outperform rating on COIN, HOOD and CRCL ahead of their third-quarter earnings. However, it slashed Coinbase's earnings forecast and price target while raising estimates for Robinhood's revenue and Circle's earnings.

Coinbase trading reset

Bernstein lowered its Coinbase target to $250 from $330, pointing to weaker crypto trading volumes and a stalled recovery.

Analysts Gautam Chhugani, Mahika Sapra and Sanskar Chindalia cut their 2026 revenue forecast by roughly 32% to $5.5 billion and are expecting a full-year loss of $2.60 per share versus their previous $5.97 profit.

"We no longer assume any bullish crypto price action in our estimates," the analysts wrote.

On the other hand, Bernstein expects prediction markets and derivatives products on Coinbase to generate roughly $2 billion in revenue by 2028, up from around $600 million earlier in the year.

For the third quarter, the analysts expect spot trading to stagnate at $150 billion, with stablecoin revenue to be the biggest factor for revenue growth.

COIN is trading just above $162 per share on Monday, leaving the stock down more than 31% year-to-date.

Robinhood prediction markets

Bernstein expects Robinhood's prediction market revenue to hit $1.7 billion in 2028, just ahead of its projected $1.6 billion in crypto revenue.

The analysts predict a quarter-over-quarter jump of 21% in the firm's event contract volume to around 16.4 billion contracts. Crypto trading across Robinhood and its Bitstamp subsidiary is expected to recover to roughly $50 billion, though that would still come 38% under last year's Q3 volumes at the height of the 2025 crypto bull run.

Robinhood's native blockchain, which launched in July, brought in around $90 billion in transaction volume and $50 million in fees during the third quarter, coming mostly from memecoin trading.

Bernstein kept its $160 price target for Robinhood. HOOD is trading at $93.37 on Monday, down around 17.5% year-to-date.

Circle revenue lift

In the same report, Bernstein raised USDC issuer Circle's price target to $145 from $140 based on its Arc token presales and outlook on reserve yields.

The firm expects Q3 revenue to rise slightly to $770 million despite an expected decline in reserve income after USDC supply fell to around $73 billion from $77 billion in the second quarter.

Arc gives Circle another potential revenue stream beyond just interest earned on USDC reserves, including transaction fees and validator staking revenue, the analysts wrote.

Circle shares were trading around $80.50 on Monday, up about 1.5% year to date, making it the only one of the three stocks in positive territory this year.