Bitcoin records largest weekly dollar gain in history; Strive CEO predicts 'strongest' cycle ever

Bitcoin (BTC) just recorded its largest dollar-denominated weekly gain in history — gaining $14,264 to close the week at $77,387. This is a 22.7% gain in just seven days.

The current rally, triggered by the U.S. Treasury Department's announcement last week of an expansion of its buyback program, has flipped investor apathy into FOMO. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index stands at 78 — on the brink of "extreme greed" and the highest it has been since December 2024.

The improved sentiment is also reflected in U.S. bitcoin exchange-traded fund flows. In the trading week ended Aug. 21, spot bitcoin ETFs reported $1.92 billion in total net inflows, the largest amount the funds have seen since the height of the last bull cycle in October 2025, according to SoSoValue data.

Matt Cole, Chairman and CEO of Strive, said bitcoin's comparative performance against both the dollar and gold shows that the next bitcoin cycle "will be the strongest we have ever seen." 

Hunt for scarcity

"The growing hunt for scarcity in an AI-driven world of abundance both point toward a powerful structural tailwind for scarce assets," Cole wrote, adding that this force will drive more capital toward scarce monetary assets such as gold, silver, and bitcoin. 

The bitcoin-to-gold ratio currently stands at 16.73 ounces of gold per bitcoin, the highest level since May, according to Longtermtrends.

"What makes this week particularly interesting is that bitcoin has now broken out against both the dollar and gold. The breakout has been explosive," Cole said. "Relative performance within that trade will help determine where incremental capital and liquidity flow. When bitcoin is the fastest horse, it will attract a disproportionate share of that capital."

The Strive CEO said these structural forces have left him more bullish on bitcoin today than ever before, adding that while a short-term pullback is likely, buyers will step in aggressively to buy the dip. 

Rally to continue

Other analysts predict that the current upward momentum will likely continue in the near future.

"The rally will continue in the short term, fueled by the short renewed ETF inflows, and improving macro liquidity," said Dominick John, analyst at Zeus Research. "With the CLARITY Act potentially advancing in September, institutional confidence could strengthen further, but some mid-term consolidation is likely before the next leg higher."

BTC Markets Crypto Analyst Rachael Lucas told The Block that it is important to understand what is driving the gains of such historic magnitude. 

"Momentum this sharp is often driven by a mix of short covering, spot demand and derivatives positioning rather than a single catalyst," Lucas said. "The key thing to watch isn't the headline number; it's whether spot volume and ETF inflows are confirming the move or whether it's being amplified by leverage."

Lucas noted that spot-driven rallies offer stronger structural support for another leg up, whereas leverage-heavy moves leave the market vulnerable to a sharp unwind.

Watch the flows

The BTC Markets analyst said investors should watch spot bitcoin ETF flow data, which tends to lag, as it will show whether institutional demand is in line with market sentiment. Investors should also monitor derivatives positioning, funding rates and open interest, which will show how much leverage has built into this move, Lucas said.

"Overheated funding rates and elevated open interest after a move this size are often an early warning of a leverage-driven pullback," Lucas added. "Broader macro risk, particularly any hawkish repricing in rate expectations or USD strength, could also cap enthusiasm."

Lucas, however, noted that a fair amount of profit-taking and volatility is a normal part of price discovery, and should not be interpreted as a bearish signal in itself.

"The main target is to reclaim $80,000 and see how the market responds. If the breakout holds, I'd look toward $85,000-$90,000, with $100,000 possible if ETF inflows and macro liquidity remain supportive," John of Zeus said.