Solana Policy Institute CEO says Clarity Act in 'August recess purgatory,' gives it 10% odds before midterms

The window to pass the landmark Clarity Act framework before the midterm elections is closing, according to Solana Policy Institute CEO Miller Whitehouse-Levine.

Asked to put a number on the chances of the Clarity Act becoming law before the November midterm elections, Whitehouse-Levine told The Block at the Wyoming Blockchain Symposium 2026 that he would put the odds at "about 10%."

"Right now, I would say it's in August recess purgatory," Whitehouse-Levine said, noting that the Senate has been working on the legislation for more than a year. "As the end of the clock winds down on this Congress, getting the bill done becomes increasingly more difficult."

Whitehouse-Levine said the scheduled motion to proceed would be only the first of several votes needed to advance the legislation, adding that he remains "hopeful, but realistic about its odds."

His outlook is even more pessimistic than prediction market traders. Polymarket currently puts odds of the Clarity Act being signed into law by the end of the year at 21%. The market has more than $7 million in trading volume. Kalshi traders put the odds at a similar 23%, down from 50% less than a month ago.

'Time is not on our side'

Whitehouse-Levine said the Clarity Act's path has become more muddied as more traditional institutions get involved.

"This is probably the sixth attempt at doing a market structure bill in the United States," he said. This time around, however, the president's involvement has created political complications for Democrats while traditional finance has "woken up to crypto," bringing more competing interests into the debate.

Banks and large lenders still take issue with the provisions around stablecoin yields, while securities firms and derivatives companies are focused on contingencies that would affect their businesses.

"You have all these new interests that have woken up to the fact that, oh no, the Clarity Act could move, we better get our act together," he said. "And them getting their act together just means more stakeholders involved, which always makes it harder."

He also argued that failing to finish the legislation would mean squandering more than a year's worth of work already put into the bill by lawmakers and staff.

"One cannot underestimate the tens of thousands of man-hours that Congressional staffers and members of Congress have spent on this bill," he said, calling the time spent on legislation that ultimately fails to pass as a "massive opportunity cost."

'Can't afford to keep waiting'

Whitehouse-Levine said that the slipping prospects for Congress to bring the bill across the finish line make it more important for regulators to start moving ahead on their own.

"I am hopeful that the regulatory agencies move quickly, because my hope in Congress's ability to deliver is diminishing," he said.

"I think that's why it's high time for the regulators to move because I think to the extent Congress, again, is not going to legislate, they're abdicating their responsibility and the regulators need to do so," he added.

This comes as the Securities and Exchange Commission proposed "Regulation Crypto Assets," a framework that includes exemptions for digital assets from certain registration requirements.

Whitehouse-Levine added that his and the Solana Policy Institute's wish list also includes regulatory pathways for token fundraising and exemptions that would allow more securities and derivatives trading onchain in the U.S.

"We're going to be pretty focused on these regulatory actions now," he said. "I think we can't afford to keep waiting for Congress at this point."