Bernstein says Clarity Act failure allows stablecoin rewards on idle balances to continue, expects 'swift' SEC and CFTC rulemaking

Analysts at research and brokerage firm Bernstein said in a note to clients on Wednesday that the Senate's failure to advance the Clarity Act shifts the next stretch of U.S. crypto rulemaking to the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

The procedural vote on Tuesday failed 49-50, with 49 senators voting to advance the bill, 11 short of the 60 needed. Negotiations broke down over ethics provisions concerning President Donald Trump's crypto interests.

The Bernstein analysts led by Gautam Chhugani said they expect the SEC and CFTC to lean towards  “specific rule-making,” adding that they foresee the process being “aggressive and swift” to make up for time spent negotiating the legislation.

The analysts expect the SEC and CFTC to tackle issues including the classification of native crypto tokens, protections for DeFi and self-custody infrastructure, and rules governing equity tokenization. They also see room for faster approvals of real-world-asset perpetual futures, as well as coordination between the two agencies on single-stock perpetuals.

Bernstein also pointed to federal sports event contracts, saying it expects rules to be amended around their classification as swaps.

What's next?

The failed legislation leaves the stablecoin rewards framework unchanged, Bernstein said, adding that the compromise text would have prohibited rewards on idle stablecoin balances and tied them to customer activity. Platforms such as Coinbase can continue offering rewards on idle balances in the absence of the bill.

“Stablecoins should be just fine since they are governed by GENIUS,” the analysts wrote. 

Separately, StoneX Financial analysts led by Mark Palmer said the bill is dead for this Congress, citing only 14 working days left in the Senate before campaign season. They noted Sen. Cynthia Lummis’s comment that the next realistic shot at the Clarity Act may not come until 2030, while Polymarket odds of the bill becoming law in 2026 had fallen from 82% in February to 16% before the vote.

StoneX also highlighted the implications for stablecoin rewards. The analysts noted that the OCC and FDIC have proposed rules that could presume an issuer violates the GENIUS Act’s issuer yield ban if it pays an affiliate that then rewards stablecoin holders. They said the issue could ultimately end up in court once GENIUS takes effect in January 2027.